Many of you have contacted me over the last year asking me why I had stopped posting on my blog and why there was no longer any method of buying my picks as in year’s past. I continued to provide my picks to all existing clients who still had active subscriptions and that process will officially end on Super Bowl Sunday. Over the last year I have done a lot of thinking and soul searching about continuing to participate in an industry where people are being lied to, swindled and in some cases out and out stolen from. The sports handicapping business also seems to attract people with unrealistic expectations and pie in the sky ”I am going to quit my day job” attitudes. Trust me I have been handicapping sports for almost 50 years. Yes, that makes me an old guy but it also makes me knowledgable on how this game works and especially on how it has evolved. Sports betting today is more than a back room good old boy activity. It has become a financial market that handles billions of dollars every year. Nevada’s 176 sports books are projecting a record handle of $95 million on Super Bowl 45 alone. At least ten times that much will be wagered illegally around the world. Believe me this is big business and it is growing every day. The downside of all this for you the bettor is that the more money involved means much closer scrutiny by all the casino executives who answer to the board members of the corporations that own the hundreds of lavish Las Vegas boulevard properties. I don’t care what the theme of the proerty is. Whether it is the Rio with their Brazilian decor or the Paris with all the cute French cafes inside. Or better yet Caesars with all their Greek Gods and Godesses running around.  Make no mistake they are all after the same thing. YOUR MONEY!!!  What You Bet In Vegas Does Not Have To Stay In Vegas and if you come back to this site often I will prove it to you.

I can’t believe it has been 45 years since the birth of The Super Bowl and even more so I can’t believe what a spectacle it has become. Isn’t it still just a freak’en football game? Albeit a Championship football game but still just a football game. As a sports bettor you should fight all urges to it treat as anything more. Don’t bet ten or one hundred times more than what you normally wager and PLEASE don’t get suckered into betting on things like the coin toss or if either team will outscore LeBron James in an NBA game that day. Make your normal wager and sit back and watch the games and the new commercials. Nevada’s sports books are hoping for a game handle of around $95 million and The M Resort has reported one single wager of a million dollars on Green Bay -2. How would you like to be sitting next to that guy during Super Bowl 45? Past history has proven that many such wagers are nothing more than publicity stunts with the individual(s) laying off their wager in smaller increments at other properties.

As a sports futures player I am proud to say I am still alive on the Steelers with a 200 unit ticket at odds of 7 to 1. A ticket purchased in Primm, Nevada way back in October. I don’t believe there is any bigger rush in sports wagering than watching a team you have your money on advance through the playoffs and reach the finals. Now I face the inevitable question from my friends “Are you going to lay off all or any part of the wager?” In other words are you going to bet part of your potential winnings on the Packers so you win no matter who takes home the Lombardi Trophy?

The answer is “NO, why would I?”

The Steelers are currently listed at +120 on the money line. This number means the Vegas odds makers feel that the Steelers are just around a fifty-fifty proposition to win the game outright. When I have them at odds of 7 to 1 I have shifted a whole lot of vigorish in my favor. Last year I held tickets on both the Colts and the Saints but had four times as much wagered on Peyton and company so the Saint victory cut deep into my 2009/2010 season’s profits.

In addition to being in this favorable “odds” position I also think the Steelers have an excellent chance of winning Super Bowl XLV. I will not bore you with the myriad of stats I have accumulated about Super Bowl matchups but the chart below is the first thing I do the Monday after the AFC and NFC Championships games have decided this year’s participants.

Eight teams have had an advantage in all four categories previous to Pittsburgh this year. 7 of those 8 squads or 88% won the Super Bowl.

Win or lose on Sunday I will be back in the desert early next October playing the NFL Futures. Shopping for the best odds on the teams that fit my statistical model and enjoying the beautiful fall weather. Once again proving to myself that what you bet in Vegas doesn’t have to stay in Vegas.

Neither team plays defense. With the over under total hovering between 55 and 57 (the highest ever in Super Bowl history) the boys in Vegas obviously think we are in for a shoot out come Sunday. The public must agree because the number keeps rising. I am not so sure I agree. First off I believe the Colts defense is better than they look and I believe the Saints know if they can run successfully they will keep the ball out of Manning’s hands and thus avoid the up and down the field game that Manning almost always wins.  Below is what I call my Super Bowl Leaning On Defense Chart:

Since 1970 teams sweeping all four categories have gone 14-3 (82%) straight up in the Super Bowl. Teams like this years edition of the Colts that have held a 3 to 1 edge in these categories have gone 12-8 (60%) straight up in the Super Bowl.  All the numbers above are close so I expect a lot of late action will come in on the Saints who have become America’s darlings but before you follow the sheep to the…..I thought you should know teams making their Super Bowl debut are 9-20 straight up and the last nineteen went 6-12-1 against the number. Thanks for listening.

Prior to the Pittsburgh Steelers defeating the Seattle Seahawks 21 to 10 in the 2006 Super I read an article in the LA Times written by Sam Farmer that used eleven indicators to determine which team will win the Super Bowl. Being the figure filbert I am I immediately began tracking this formula’s validity and comparing it with the ones that I use. The article claimed that the team which held the edge in most of the eleven categories had won the Super Bowl 29 of 38 years or 76% of the time. Denver’s Super Bowl XXXIII victory over Atlanta was not included because the indicators were 5-5-1. I must remind my readers that this impressive 76% win percentage is straight up and not against the spread. In 2006 the underdog Seahawks held a 6 to 5 edge over the Steelers but lost the game outright making this “Super” formula 29-10-1 (73%). In 2007 the Chicago Bears held a 7-3 edge over Peyton Manning and the Colts. We all watched Rex Grossman implode and hand the Lombardi Trophy to Tony Dungy and crew to post yet another “Super” formula loss making the

Every autumn I travel to Las Vegas to play the Super Bowl futures and I have been relatively successful following a simple formula of throwing out last year’s winner as well this year’s favorite and lastly not accepting less than 5 to 1 odds.  Last fall I wagered 100 units on the Colts at 8 to1 and the Giants at 7 to 1 to WIN the Super Bowl. I also put 50 units on the Saints at 9 to 1 odds and the Broncos at 30 to 1. Half of my original investment of 300 units is now gone (Giants 100/Broncos 50). I also wagered 20 units on the New York Jets at 32 to 1 during a holiday trip between Christmas and New Years. I ordinarily do not wager on any team that late into the season but the fact that this year’s Jets allowed the fewest points and the fewest yards during the regular season caught my attention because my records show that 5 of the last 8 teams (63%) to accomplish that feat WON the Super Bowl. So my total investment is 320 units as we head into Championship weekend and I have three live teams. Below I have computed my ROI (return on investment) on all four remaining potential

As we close in on the start of the 2009 football season I like to remind my readers that this handicapping game is a marathon not a sprint. On Thursday, September 3rd the collge games begin followed the very next Thurday with opening night of the long NFL season. I am very often asked why I don’t grade my selections and call them 4 or 5 star picks or give them catchy names like SEC Upset of the Week. Well my answer has always been that it is tough enough to pick more winners than losers let alone trying to assign each game a grade or preference. Having said that one word of advice I always give my subscirbers at this time of year is to practice good money management. I thought I would take this week to discuss my approach to money management and perhaps it will give each of you some useable ideas on the subject.

1) Determine the breakdown and size of your bankroll BEFORE the season begins.

This is not a decision you want to make in the heat of battle!! If you do so while on a bad losing streak what are the chances you are going to make a

I have been wagering on NFL games for over forty years and during that time I have read many articles from other handicappers who claim they have some magical formula for predicting the NFL preseason games at a higher percentage than they do during the regular season. Does that really make sense? In most of these games the coaching staff doesn’t even know EXACTLY what they are going to be able to accomplish in their team’s first LIVE action against real competitors so how can anyone really know whether they are going to cover a point spread.  What I will do this week is share with you a few betting trends that I have had at least a 60% success rate with in preseason wagering.

1) Bet ON a team playing it’s second preseason game against a team that is playing it’s first. This one needs very little explanation. It only makes sense that a team with a game under it’s belt will be more prepared to make a good showing versus one that is just getting started.

2) Bet the Jets versus the Giants. Motivation is the key here. The Jets will always be NYC’s NFL step child despite Willie Joe’s accomplishments so it only makes sense that

a bunch of hypocrytes!!! After failing in the courtroom to block the state of Delaware from accepting wagers on single college football games during the 2009 season and beyond the talking heads that run college sports got even by dictating that any state accepting wagers on single games will not be allowed to host a championship game of any kind. These are the same people who take African American kids out of the ghetto pay them nothing and make billions off their ability to play sports and then kick them to the curb after their four years of eligibility has ended. This is all done under the guise that the kids are rewarded with a college education. I won’t even go into graduation rates!!! These are the same individuals who claim adding a twelfth game to the regular NCAA football season is not in the best interest of the student athlete. Get real!! Florida quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow is only taking one course this whole  year much like USC’s Matt Leinart did his senior year. The real reason they don’t want to start adding games is that it might lead to a much wanted playoff system which would interrupt the current way the cash

When I was in Las Vegas week before last I had a mild interest in wagering on a few NFL team regular season win totals. I have charted below both the AFC and NFC 2009 numbers from a Lucky’s Race and Sports Book:

I took the Lions and over 5 at +135. The public is very down on Detroit right now so being the contrarian I am I went the other way. I also took the Eagles

I am never ceased to be amazed at the creativity the books in Las Vegas use to relieve the uninformed tourist of his money. I thought this week I would share with you some of those “creative” wagers that were available last week when I was in Sin City. Let’s start with one that I saw at Lucky’s sportsbooks which now includes Primm at Stateline and the old Union Plaza downtown.

Which Group Will Produce The 2009-2010 Super Bowl Champion