I can’t believe it has been 45 years since the birth of The Super Bowl and even more so I can’t believe what a spectacle it has become. Isn’t it still just a freak’en football game? Albeit a Championship football game but still just a football game. As a sports bettor you should fight all urges to it treat as anything more. Don’t bet ten or one hundred times more than what you normally wager and PLEASE don’t get suckered into betting on things like the coin toss or if either team will outscore LeBron James in an NBA game that day. Make your normal wager and sit back and watch the games and the new commercials. Nevada’s sports books are hoping for a game handle of around $95 million and The M Resort has reported one single wager of a million dollars on Green Bay -2. How would you like to be sitting next to that guy during Super Bowl 45? Past history has proven that many such wagers are nothing more than publicity stunts with the individual(s) laying off their wager in smaller increments at other properties.
As a sports futures player I am proud to say I am still alive on the Steelers with a 200 unit ticket at odds of 7 to 1. A ticket purchased in Primm, Nevada way back in October. I don’t believe there is any bigger rush in sports wagering than watching a team you have your money on advance through the playoffs and reach the finals. Now I face the inevitable question from my friends “Are you going to lay off all or any part of the wager?” In other words are you going to bet part of your potential winnings on the Packers so you win no matter who takes home the Lombardi Trophy?
The answer is “NO, why would I?”
The Steelers are currently listed at +120 on the money line. This number means the Vegas odds makers feel that the Steelers are just around a fifty-fifty proposition to win the game outright. When I have them at odds of 7 to 1 I have shifted a whole lot of vigorish in my favor. Last year I held tickets on both the Colts and the Saints but had four times as much wagered on Peyton and company so the Saint victory cut deep into my 2009/2010 season’s profits.
In addition to being in this favorable “odds” position I also think the Steelers have an excellent chance of winning Super Bowl XLV. I will not bore you with the myriad of stats I have accumulated about Super Bowl matchups but the chart below is the first thing I do the Monday after the AFC and NFC Championships games have decided this year’s participants.
| GB | Pitt | |
|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Pass | 8.0 | 8.1 |
| Yards Allowed/Game | 309.1 | 276.8 |
| Points Allowed | 240.0 | 232.0 |
| QB Experience | 6 years | 7 years |
Eight teams have had an advantage in all four categories previous to Pittsburgh this year. 7 of those 8 squads or 88% won the Super Bowl.
Win or lose on Sunday I will be back in the desert early next October playing the NFL Futures. Shopping for the best odds on the teams that fit my statistical model and enjoying the beautiful fall weather. Once again proving to myself that what you bet in Vegas doesn’t have to stay in Vegas.
Comments on this entry are closed.