TIME TO TAKE “A BETTOR APPROACH”

by Larry Trusley on January 30, 2011

Many of you have contacted me over the last year asking me why I had stopped posting on my blog and why there was no longer any method of buying my picks as in year’s past. I continued to provide my picks to all existing clients who still had active subscriptions and that process will officially end on Super Bowl Sunday. Over the last year I have done a lot of thinking and soul searching about continuing to participate in an industry where people are being lied to, swindled and in some cases out and out stolen from. The sports handicapping business also seems to attract people with unrealistic expectations and pie in the sky ”I am going to quit my day job” attitudes. Trust me I have been handicapping sports for almost 50 years. Yes, that makes me an old guy but it also makes me knowledgable on how this game works and especially on how it has evolved. Sports betting today is more than a back room good old boy activity. It has become a financial market that handles billions of dollars every year. Nevada’s 176 sports books are projecting a record handle of $95 million on Super Bowl 45 alone. At least ten times that much will be wagered illegally around the world. Believe me this is big business and it is growing every day. The downside of all this for you the bettor is that the more money involved means much closer scrutiny by all the casino executives who answer to the board members of the corporations that own the hundreds of lavish Las Vegas boulevard properties. I don’t care what the theme of the proerty is. Whether it is the Rio with their Brazilian decor or the Paris with all the cute French cafes inside. Or better yet Caesars with all their Greek Gods and Godesses running around.  Make no mistake they are all after the same thing. YOUR MONEY!!!  What You Bet In Vegas Does Not Have To Stay In Vegas and if you come back to this site often I will prove it to you.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }

SUPER BOWL XLV

by Larry Trusley on January 29, 2011

I can’t believe it has been 45 years since the birth of The Super Bowl and even more so I can’t believe what a spectacle it has become. Isn’t it still just a freak’en football game? Albeit a Championship football game but still just a football game. As a sports bettor you should fight all urges to it treat as anything more. Don’t bet ten or one hundred times more than what you normally wager and PLEASE don’t get suckered into betting on things like the coin toss or if either team will outscore LeBron James in an NBA game that day. Make your normal wager and sit back and watch the games and the new commercials. Nevada’s sports books are hoping for a game handle of around $95 million and The M Resort has reported one single wager of a million dollars on Green Bay -2. How would you like to be sitting next to that guy during Super Bowl 45? Past history has proven that many such wagers are nothing more than publicity stunts with the individual(s) laying off their wager in smaller increments at other properties.

As a sports futures player I am proud to say I am still alive on the Steelers with a 200 unit ticket at odds of 7 to 1. A ticket purchased in Primm, Nevada way back in October. I don’t believe there is any bigger rush in sports wagering than watching a team you have your money on advance through the playoffs and reach the finals. Now I face the inevitable question from my friends “Are you going to lay off all or any part of the wager?” In other words are you going to bet part of your potential winnings on the Packers so you win no matter who takes home the Lombardi Trophy?

The answer is “NO, why would I?”

The Steelers are currently listed at +120 on the money line. This number means the Vegas odds makers feel that the Steelers are just around a fifty-fifty proposition to win the game outright. When I have them at odds of 7 to 1 I have shifted a whole lot of vigorish in my favor. Last year I held tickets on both the Colts and the Saints but had four times as much wagered on Peyton and company so the Saint victory cut deep into my 2009/2010 season’s profits.

In addition to being in this favorable “odds” position I also think the Steelers have an excellent chance of winning Super Bowl XLV. I will not bore you with the myriad of stats I have accumulated about Super Bowl matchups but the chart below is the first thing I do the Monday after the AFC and NFC Championships games have decided this year’s participants.

GB Pitt
Yards Per Pass 8.0 8.1
Yards Allowed/Game 309.1 276.8
Points Allowed 240.0 232.0
QB Experience 6 years 7 years

 

Eight teams have had an advantage in all four categories previous to Pittsburgh this year. 7 of those 8 squads or 88% won the Super Bowl.

Win or lose on Sunday I will be back in the desert early next October playing the NFL Futures. Shopping for the best odds on the teams that fit my statistical model and enjoying the beautiful fall weather. Once again proving to myself that what you bet in Vegas doesn’t have to stay in Vegas.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }

Defense Wins Super Bowls But What If?

February 3, 2010

Neither team plays defense. With the over under total hovering between 55 and 57 (the highest ever in Super Bowl history) the boys in Vegas obviously think we are in for a shoot out come Sunday. The public must agree because the number keeps rising. I am not so sure I agree. First off I [...]

Read the full article →

Super Bowl Formula Points To Saints

January 27, 2010

  Prior to the Pittsburgh Steelers defeating the Seattle Seahawks 21 to 10 in the 2006 Super I read an article in the LA Times written by Sam Farmer that used eleven indicators to determine which team will win the Super Bowl. Being the figure filbert I am I immediately began tracking this formula’s validity [...]

[private]Not allowed[/private]
Read the full article →

WHO IS GOING TO MIAMI?

January 21, 2010

Every autumn I travel to Las Vegas to play the Super Bowl futures and I have been relatively successful following a simple formula of throwing out last year’s winner as well this year’s favorite and lastly not accepting less than 5 to 1 odds.  Last fall I wagered 100 units on the Colts at 8 to1 and the Giants [...]

[private]Not allowed[/private]
Read the full article →

Keep Your Money Management Program Simple

August 22, 2009

As we close in on the start of the 2009 football season I like to remind my readers that this handicapping game is a marathon not a sprint. On Thursday, September 3rd the collge games begin followed the very next Thurday with opening night of the long NFL season. I am very often asked why [...]

[private]Not allowed[/private]
Read the full article →

Bet On Preseason Football At Your Own Risk

August 14, 2009

I have been wagering on NFL games for over forty years and during that time I have read many articles from other handicappers who claim they have some magical formula for predicting the NFL preseason games at a higher percentage than they do during the regular season. Does that really make sense? In most of these games [...]

[private]Not allowed[/private]
Read the full article →

NCAA Coaches Usually Get It Right But The Administrators Are

August 7, 2009

a bunch of hypocrytes!!! After failing in the courtroom to block the state of Delaware from accepting wagers on single college football games during the 2009 season and beyond the talking heads that run college sports got even by dictating that any state accepting wagers on single games will not be allowed to host a championship game of any kind. [...]

[private]Not allowed[/private]
Read the full article →

Wagering On NFL Regular Season Win Totals

August 2, 2009

When I was in Las Vegas week before last I had a mild interest in wagering on a few NFL team regular season win totals. I have charted below both the AFC and NFC 2009 numbers from a Lucky’s Race and Sports Book: NFC TEAM Wins Over Odds Under Odds Arizona 8 1/2 Even -120 [...]

[private]Not allowed[/private]
Read the full article →

Vegas Never Lacks Creativity

July 23, 2009

I am never ceased to be amazed at the creativity the books in Las Vegas use to relieve the uninformed tourist of his money. I thought this week I would share with you some of those “creative” wagers that were available last week when I was in Sin City. Let’s start with one that I [...]

[private]Not allowed[/private]
Read the full article →